The RBA Monetary Policy Board met on 3 Nov 2026 and voted to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points, setting it at 4.85 per cent. Six members supported the hike while three preferred to keep the rate at 4.60 per cent.
The Board highlighted that inflation remains elevated and broadly based, with recent data showing higher fuel and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict and tighter domestic capacity pressures than previously estimated.
Updated staff forecasts now place inflation above the 3 per cent level for much of 2027, and the median projection for reaching the top of the 2–3 per cent target range has been pushed to late 2027—about three quarters later than earlier expectations.
The recent rate increases have tightened financial conditions. The economy is slowing, housing prices have fallen sharply, and the unemployment rate has risen, prompting the Board to anticipate further slowing of output growth over the next year.
While dwelling investment and household consumption are expected to be weighed down by higher rates and falling house prices, the Board expects near‐term growth in overall business investment, particularly in AI‐related and data‐centre projects, to remain relatively strong.
The Board noted heightened uncertainties, including the unresolved Middle East conflict, possible global oil supply disruptions, and weaker productivity growth, all of which could keep inflation pressures elevated and dampen domestic activity.
Concluding, the Board affirmed its commitment to bring inflation back to the 2–3 per cent target range, stating that further tightening of financial conditions is warranted given the revised inflation outlook and upside risks.