At its monetary policy assessment held on 22 and 23 September 2026, the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%. The decision followed an analysis of shifting economic conditions, including a notable depreciation of the Swiss franc, which fell by approximately 3% in trade-weighted terms since the previous assessment in June.
Inflation in Switzerland has trended upward as expected, reaching 0.8% in August. This increase was attributed to imported inflation driven by rising prices for oil products. The SNB's core inflation rate, calculated using a trimmed mean (TM15), stood at 0.6% in August. While inflation has risen, the Governing Board noted that inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
The Swiss franc's depreciation was linked to widening interest rate differentials between Switzerland and other major economies. This environment, combined with low volatility, increased the attractiveness of the franc as a funding currency for carry trades. The Governing Board observed that because the currency depreciation outweighed the slight rise in interest rates, overall monetary conditions have eased since June.
Globally, the economic outlook remains clouded by tensions in the Middle East and rising energy prices. The SNB noted that capacity constraints at crude oil refining facilities have caused processed oil products, such as petrol and diesel, to rise in price more sharply than crude oil. Such energy price volatility is expected to be a primary driver for the future course of international inflation.
Domestically, Swiss companies reported robust turnover growth in the third quarter, with manufacturing activity gaining pace. While capacity utilization in manufacturing improved, it remained below historical averages. The labor market remains stable; although unemployment rose slightly in the second quarter, employment levels also increased during the same period.
Looking ahead, the SNB discussed the potential for artificial intelligence (AI) investments to boost long-term productivity and potential growth. While companies anticipate higher purchase prices for oil-based products and software, they expect wage increases to remain moderate through next year. The Governing Board concluded that current excess liquidity is consistent with medium-term price stability.